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https://www.oftwominds.com/blogoct20/global-depression10-20.html

Next Up: Global Depression

Let's revisit the pandemic projection chart I prepared on February 2, 2020, nine days after authorities publicly acknowledged the Covid virus outbreak in China. Wave 2 shown on the chart is now underway with a vengeance and next up is Global Depression.



This projection was based on two well-known dynamics:

1. History offers a basic template for viral pandemics in which the initial wave dies back in summer and then re-ignites in a second larger Wave 2 in autumn and winter.

2. Humanity's default responses to novel crises: denial, fantasy, magical thinking and manipulating data to support a simplistic, emotionally satisfying ideological position.

Each of these predictable dynamics has manifested in all their perverse glory.

A number of cognitive/logical errors are manifesting as well.

False binaries i.e. false perceptions of the situation being either/or. For example: you get the virus and either recover or die. We only count those two options. This false binary conveniently ignores:

A. the third category--you get the virus and become a long-hauler (a.k.a. Long Covid) who is debilitated for months by exhaustion and other post-viral conditions; (Long COVID slide presentation)

B. the fourth category--you get the virus and recover quickly but suffer major organ damage that isn't immediately visible/symptomatic;

C. the fifth category--you get the virus, recover, assume you're immune forever and then contract the virus again some months later--only this time the consequences are far more severe.

And so on. The same holds true for ideological false binaries. Those holding binary ideological positions--you are either With Me or With The Wrong Side--spend their time and energy cherry-picking and manipulating data so it supports their pre-selected ideological world view.

Those of us who simply want unmolested data so we can decide for ourselves have no recourse, as the ideologically motivated have poisoned the data (don't test don't tell, under-reporting, over-reporting, ignoring lag times in reporting, suppressing data, requiring data be reported to privately owned corporations rather than government agencies, discounting good data in favor of bogus data that reaches the "right" conclusion, and so on) in an endless profusion of manipulation for political purposes.

As with China's Communist leadership, if data that can't be gamed or manipulated enters the public domain, it's immediately suppressed. Skeptics of China's permanently miraculous "growth" statistics discovered electrical consumption figures did not reflect the miraculous "growth" in the officially sanctioned statistics, and so China moved to suppress this inconveniently factual data so it would not longer be available.

We're seeing the same politicization of data in the U.S. We're now down to public-health data collection that hasn't yet been suppressed or manipulated: hospital admissions and death certificates. Authorities suppressing Covid-related deaths can report any cause of death they want, but the peak of deaths far above the statistical norm tells us an important fact despite the suppression/obfuscation.

Confusing categories, correlations, causes and conclusions. It's widely held that the Covid pandemic is fundamentally a power-grab by elites. Fair enough; crises have long been the excuse given for "temporary emergency measures" that become permanent power-grabs.

But to accept that the pandemic is the cover for a power-grab by elites does not mean the Covid virus is a harmless chimera. The virus can be dangerous in ways that aren't measured by counting deaths and the pandemic can still be the excuse for "emergency powers" becoming permanent, i.e. a power grab. One conclusion (a power-grab) does not require a second completely different conclusion (the virus is not dangerous to anyone under the age of 70 and therefore it's no big deal).

The assumption that there's a correlation between an ideological position and wearing a mask (or other behavior) is ungrounded. An individual can reach conclusions outside rigid ideological boundaries. Personally, I found this study of which passengers caught the virus on a bus in China useful in my own decision-making: Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official 'safe distance' and stay in air for 30 minutes.

The most consequential falsity in my view is the belief that the global economy was robust before the pandemic and it will revert to that robustness once we: get a vaccine, end the lockdowns, seek herd immunity, etc. etc.

The global economy was teetering on the edge of recession and financial implosion long before the pandemic appeared. Ending the pandemic cannot restore an illusion of "growth" that masked a hollowed out, fragile, brittle global economy.

The Global Depression was baked in long before the pandemic. All the pandemic did was kick out the last rotten 2X4s holding up the fading facade of "growth."

As the global tsunami of Wave 2 sweeps away the sandcastles of denial, fantasy and magical thinking, it's worth recalling that the Covid-19 virus has four features that make it difficult to control:

1. It is highly contagious.
2. Carriers with no symptoms can infect others.
3. A significant percentage of older / compromised patients develop severe symptoms that require hospitalization.
4. Once the healthcare system is overwhelmed, the system cannot provide care to everyone who needs it. As a result, the death rate rises the moment the healthcare system is overwhelmed / breaks down.

We've drawn a gravely false conclusion from central bank money-printing and technology: we now assume that central banks can print up as much money as we need to buy whatever we need in whatever quantity we need. The magic of technology essentially guarantees that there will always be a substitute, "cure" or "solution" available whenever we need one.

Unfortunately, central banks can't "print" experienced doctors or nurses. When the front line of healthcare workers is depleted by illness and burnout, there are no substitutes or Big Tech robots-to-the-rescue. The healthcare system we've optimized for "creating shareholder value" (i.e. unlimited greed pathologically pursued by any means available) will break down and that will be that.

Central banks can't "print" creditworthy borrowers, solvent companies, real-world collateral, risk-free "investing," oil, jobs, trust in failed institutions, social cohesion or anything else of importance that is now scarce.

The belief that central banks printing currency can "buy/fix" everything that's broken, lost or scarce is the ultimate in denial, fantasy and magical thinking. All that was unsustainably fragile, corrupt and brittle is unraveling, and thinking that ending the lockdowns, approving a vaccine, etc. will stave off causality is the supreme indulgence in denial, fantasy and magical thinking. 

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https://www.oftwominds.com/blogoct20/fed-tyranny10-20.html

The New Tyranny Few Even Recognize

 It's pretty much universally recognized that authorities use crises to impose "emergency powers" that become permanent. This erosion of civil and economic liberties is always sold as "necessary for your own good." Of course the accretion of ever greater power in the hands of the few is for our own good. How could it be otherwise? (Irony off)

In this environment of "emergency powers", it's almost refreshing to find a power grab so blatant that its sheer boldness boggles the mind. I'm talking about the Federal Reserve's FedNow, a proposed system of instant payments and digital dollars.

This paper from the Cleveland Fed describes the system: FedNow paper from clevelandfed.org (PDF) (via Cheryl A.)

The rationale for the system is two-fold: The Fed sees the current ACH (automatic clearing house) payment system used by banks as too slow and limited. Payments need to be instantaneous and there must be a way to reach unbanked households, the roughly 9 million U.S. households without a bank account. In the current system, stimulus payments couldn't reach these households quickly.

The solution is a new payment system in which every household and business in the nation would have an account at FedNow, so the Fed can transfer funds directly and instantaneously into every household account (and presumably every business that the Fed has chosen to fund).

The second part of FedNow is the creation of a digital dollar which is just like the existing dollar with one tiny little difference: unlike cash (for example, a $20 bill), the digital dollars won't be anonymous. Each newly created digital dollar will be trackable.

The Fed's rationale is that panic-hoarding of coins and cash by households is a problem, as the Treasury has to go to a lot of trouble to mint more coins and print more cash. The FedNow digital dollars will be quick and easy to create and distribute--and, ahem, track.

Do you see the monstrous power grabs this we're-here-to-help system would institute?

1. The power to borrow and distribute money that is currently reserved for the elected representatives in Congress would be bypassed by FedNow. Why wait around for slow, corrupt Congress to agree on stimulus, Universal Basic Income (UBI), etc.? With FedNow, the Fed can create trillions out of thin air and distribute the dough to households without any Congressional approval.

What's interesting about this is that Congress has no power to stop the Fed from printing endless trillions and distributing the money however the Fed chooses. As an independent quasi-public agency, intended to be apolitical and outside the reach of corrupt politicos, the Fed is free to create and distribute as much new digital currency as it sees fit.

With FedNow, Congress has lost the government's monopoly power to distribute funds. Congress can still borrow and spend money, of course, but the citizenry's elected officials no longer have the monopoly granted by the Constitution.

2. The anonymity of the nation's money will be lost to the Fed's digital dollars. Perhaps the Fed will declare that only those who wear their underwear outside their clothing will avoid penalties. (Referencing the 1970s film Bananas.) Who's to say what the Fed will track, and for what purposes? The Fed, that's who.

There's a whiff of desperation in these FedNow power grabs. It's possible that the Fed has concluded that the elected legislative branch of government is now so thoroughly corrupt and dysfunctional that the Fed is forced to save the day, so to speak, by grabbing the power to create and distribute endless trillions to keep the increasingly impoverished and powerless citizenry from rebelling against the status quo.

The irony of course is that the primary source of the impoverishment of soaring inequality is the Fed itself, as the Fed's "permanent emergency powers" of sluicing trillions in free money for financiers has goosed the wealth of the top 0.1% while leaving 95% of the citizenry worse off as wage stagnation and rising inflation has eroded the standard of living / purchasing power of labor.

It's a nice trick, isn't it? First the Fed creates the inequality that makes rebellion inevitable and then it rides to the rescue with a power grab that nullifies the monopoly over governmental allocation of money the Constitution grants to Congress, and it destroys the anonymity of the "free money" it plans to distribute in the ultimate bread and circuses.

Clearly, the Fed reckons the public is foolish enough to believe the Fed's money will actually be "free." Check out what you've lost before declaring anything "free."