https://www.globalresearch.ca/because-war-ukraine-we-heading-global-food-catastrophe/5781725
Because of the War in Ukraine, We Are Heading for a Global Food Catastrophe
The invasion of Ukraine is a horror and has already cost thousands of lives. But this conflict may also destroy millions of lives far from the battlefield. The war is particularly detrimental to the global food system, which has already been weakened by Covid-19, by climate change and by high energy prices. If this war continues, we will be heading for a real food catastrophe.
How serious the situation is
On May 18, António Guterres, the UN Secretary General, sounded the alarm. For him “the spectre of a global food shortage” looms and he fears “this dangerous situation could tip into catastrophe”.
“It threatens to tip tens of millions of people over the edge into food insecurity, followed by malnutrition, mass hunger and famine, in a crisis that could last for years.”
Six days before the raid, David Beasley, director of the World Food Program (WPF), had warned of an impending food disaster:
“If we do not address the situation immediately over the next 9 months we will see famine, we will see destabilization of nations and we will see mass migration. If we don’t do something we are going to pay a mighty big price.”
At the time, he was talking about 45 million people teetering on the brink of famine. The war could add tens of millions more. As in 2011, this situation will cause political unrest in many countries. “If we don’t feed people, we feed conflict,” Guterres said.
Pandemic and Climate
Before the invasion, the food situation in the world was already precarious. Climate change has a lot to do with that. The increasing number of extreme weather phenomena is detrimental to agriculture and food production. In the past decade, 1.7 billion people have been affected by extreme weather events and climate-related disasters.
Some examples.
Last year’s floods could make the yield of China’s winter wheat harvest the lowest in history.
The recent heat wave in India will also be very detrimental to the wheat harvest there.
Due to a drought in the US grain belt, 40 percent of wheat is in bad or very bad shape (normally only 15 to 20 percent). In Europe, the yield will almost certainly be alarmingly low due to low rainfall.
Covid-19 was and remains also a major disrupting factor. The pandemic caused an economic shock. This has reduced the purchasing power of the populations in many countries and disrupted supply chains.
Many countries of the South are on the brink of bankruptcy and their access to the financial markets is limited, look at Sri Lanka as an example.
There have been other consequences. The revival of the economy after the pandemic caused soaring energy and transport prices. The energy bill is also rising due to increasing CO2 taxes. These price increases make food products a lot more expensive.
All these factors undermine food security for large parts of the world’s population. This is especially the case in the Global South, but also for us, just think of the unprecedented number of people who rely on food banks. Before the pandemic, there were 135 million people worldwide suffering from severe food insecurity. In the past two years, that number has doubled to 276 million.
The War and the Sanctions
Russia and Ukraine play a leading role in global food production. Together they account for more than a third of the world’s grain exports and just over half of the sunflower oil exports. Russia is also the largest producer of fertilizers.
Nearly 50 countries depend on Russia and Ukraine for at least 30 percent of their wheat imports. In 26 countries this is even more than 50 percent. Together, the two countries provide 12 percent of the calories traded worldwide and in total about 800 million people depend on them for their food.
The war itself and the sanctions against Russia are having a detrimental effect on both food production and export in both countries. This is especially the case in Ukraine.
Due to military violence, a lack of fertilizers and pesticides and higher diesel prices, there is a risk that it will be impossible to plant 30 to 50 percent of the spring wheat fields in Ukraine.
But especially exports have nearly completely stopped. Until recently, 98 percent of Ukrainian grain was transported via the Black Sea. Those exports have come to a complete standstill however, because Ukraine has laid naval mines and Russia has blocked all Ukrainian ports. Due to a number of problems,[i] rail or freight transport is not a real alternative.
Escorted naval convoys could be a solution, but the Ukrainian navy is too small for that and so it would need the support of NATO countries. Given the strength of the Russian fleet, that would be a more than risky undertaking and could lead to another dangerous escalation of the conflict.
Whatever the case, unless Black Sea exports pick up again, millions of tons of grain will simply rot in Ukraine’s silos.
With Russia, the problems lie elsewhere. Due to the sanctions, Russian farmers or farms may be short of seeds and pesticides.[ii] That will have an important impact on the next harvest.
Disrupted World Market
Farmers elsewhere in the world will unlikely be able to compensate for declining grain exports from Ukraine and Russia. For farmers who grow grain, fertilizers and energy are the main expenses. Both markets have been disrupted by sanctions and the natural gas rush.
If farmers cut back on fertilizers, the yields will be lower. In addition, instead of planting grain or maize, farmers will consider switching to crops with lower input costs.[iii]
The market has been further disrupted because in recent months no fewer than 35 countries have imposed strict restrictions on food exports, out of fear for their own food security. In many cases those are even total bans.
Such a disruption of the global market drives food prices up sharply. As a result of the war, food prices have reached the highest level ever recorded by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Today food prices are on average 34 percent higher than a year ago. For grain, the increase is even 81 percent.
This is becoming more and more unaffordable for many communities, especially in the countries of the South. There, families spend up to a quarter of their income on food. In Sub-Saharan Africa that is even 40 percent. Moreover, grain makes up a larger part of the budget there than in richer regions.
And then there’s another perverse effect for those countries. Inflation causes interest rates to rise. This makes the dollar and the euro more attractive, causing their exchange rate to rise. But that makes food imports (often in dollars) more expensive for the countries of the South, as well as paying off foreign debts.
What is to be Done?
The longer the war drags on, the greater the food shortage, the higher the prices and the worse the food crisis will be.
The US strategic option to “fight to the last Ukrainian” will not only increase the number of casualties on the battlefield. Far away, hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions of people will die of famine as a result.
What must be done to avoid that catastrophe?
First of all, the blockade of the Black Sea must be undone as soon as possible. This is only possible in the context of peace negotiations and a ceasefire. That presupposes a de-escalation of the war effort instead of the warmongering that we see now. In any case, according to Western diplomats, we should not expect Ukrainian ports to be opened in the coming six months.
In addition, all economic sanctions against Russia related to food production must be lifted.
Third, food protectionism must stop. In the words of António Guterres:
“There should be no restrictions on exports, and surpluses must be made available to those most in need.”
Finally, financial aid is urgently needed for the countries of the South, both to ensure food security and to avert an impending debt crisis. In October, the World Food Program estimated that it would take $6.6 billion annually to solve world hunger.[iv]
That’s not even a huge sum of money. For this war alone, Biden has committed an additional $24 billion in armaments and military support. The military budget of the European countries will also increase by tens of billions in the coming years. Apparently, there is always money for waging war, but not for fighting hunger… It shows the madness of the world in which we live.
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http://endoftheamericandream.com/5-reasons-why-the-food-supply-in-the-united-states-is-going-to-continue-to-shrink/
5 Reasons Why The Food Supply In The United States Is Going To Continue To Shrink
We are truly moving into unprecedented times. For decades, the U.S. has been the leading agricultural power in the world. Most of us have lived our entire lives in an environment of “more than enough”, and that is because food production has never been a major concern in this nation. But now things are changing. Food production is being hit from all sides by a “perfect storm” of problems, and this “perfect storm” is only going to intensify in the months ahead. The following are 5 reasons why the food supply in the United States is going to continue to shrink…
#1 Are you ready to eat less beef? The worst drought in the western half of the country “in 1,200 years” is forcing countless ranchers to reduce the size of their herds. As a result, “beef production is expected to decline by 7%” by 2023…
Persistent drought conditions throughout the Western U.S. have decimated grazing pastures which causes cattle farmers to spend more money on supplemental feed which presents another major problem for the beef industry.
By 2023, beef production is expected to decline by 7% and cattle prices are expected to increase to record highs. These increased costs and shrinking supply pose serious problems for meatpackers like Tyson Foods Inc., JBS USA holdings Inc., Cargill Inc., and National Beef Packing Co. It is likely that the increased cost of beef production is already being passed onto consumers. The more expensive it is to raise and maintain cows, and as fewer cows are raised for slaughter, the more expensive beef products will eventually cost. Ground beef and chicken prices have already reached all-time highs.
#2 The extraordinary drought in the western half of the country has also had an enormous impact on the winter wheat harvest. It was 8 percent smaller than last year, and so that is going to mean less bread and pizza to go around as the year rolls along…
In the first survey-based projection of the 2022 crop, the US Department of Agriculture in its May 12 Crop Production report forecast winter wheat production in 2022 at 1.173 billion bushels, down 103.818 million, or 8%, from 1.277 billion bushels in 2021.
The USDA winter wheat forecast was based on harvested area projected at 24.499 million acres, down 965,000 acres, or 4%, from 25.464 million acres in 2021, and an average yield forecast of 47.9 bushels an acre, down from 50.2 bushels an acre in 2021.
#3 Thanks to extremely bizarre weather conditions, spring planting was way behind schedule in many parts of the Midwest…
Farmers in parts of the Midwest are behind their usual schedules for spring planting because of wet weather conditions. According to the latest Agriculture Department crop progress report, 49% of corn acreage has been planted in the 18 states surveyed, compared with 78% this time last year; 30% of soybean acreage, compared with 58%.
When crops don’t get planted in time, that means lower yields when harvest season finally arrives.
#4 More than 37 million chickens and turkeys have been wiped out in the U.S. during the new bird flu pandemic that has erupted this year, and that is going to mean less chicken meat, less turkey meat and less eggs for all of us. Already, the price of eggs has reached absolutely insane levels…
This week, a dozen Happy Egg free-range grade-A large brown eggs sold for $4.99. The price of Kroger grade A and AA large eggs was $4.39.
The situation wasn’t much different at Cottonwood’s Safeway on May 23, where a stock clerk attributed empty shelves to the increasing demand for eggs and lagging deliveries.
#5 In Florida, a disease known as “citrus greening” is causing immense damage. In fact, we just witnessed the worst crop of oranges in Florida in 70 years…
Florida oranges had their worst crop in 70 years. They’re facing a deadly disease called citrus greening, spread in the body of the invasive Asian citrus psyllid. Today, nearly every citrus grove in Florida is infected with the disease. If an orange tree were to remain untreated, the disease would block its ability to get nutrients and kill it within a few years.
Each one of the factors that I just listed is a crisis.
Collectively, they represent an extremely serious threat.
We are going to produce a lot less food than anticipated this year, and this comes at a time when the entire globe is facing a “food catastrophe” of unprecedented size and scope.
Sara Menker, the CEO of Gro Intelligence, recently warned the UN Security Council that global food supplies are dwindling fast…
“We currently only have 10 weeks of global consumption sitting in inventory around the world,” Menker says. “Conditions today are worse than those experienced in 2007 and 2008.”
Estimates from official government agencies all around the world suggest that current wheat inventories are hovering around 33 percent of annual consumption. Models created by Gro Intelligence, however, suggest that the true figure is more like 20 percent, a level not seen since 2007 and 2008.
“It is important to note that the lowest grain inventory levels the world has ever seen are now occurring while access to fertilizers is highly constrained,” Menker adds.
Read the part about “the lowest grain inventory levels the world has ever seen” again.
That should chill you to the core, because there isn’t going to be enough food to feed everyone in the months to come.
In fact, we are being told that “one-fifth of the global population” could soon fall into poverty and hunger…
For months, the specter of a global hunger crisis has been looming. The war in Ukraine is a compounding factor, blocking key value chains for food and fertilizer just as the world reckons with the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on global hunger.
Add the pervasive effects of climate change to the mix, and the result is what the United Nations is calling a “perfect storm” that risks one-fifth of the global population – as many as 1.7 billion people – falling into poverty and hunger.
Those that regularly follow my work know that I have been relentlessly warning about a coming global famine.
Now it is here.
Just a few days ago, it was already being reported that demand at food banks all over the planet has been dramatically increasing…
The Global Food Banking Network works with member food banks in 44 countries, and many of them in Africa, Asia, and Latin America are already reporting that higher food prices are contributing to an increase in demand for emergency food assistance.
For example, a partner food bank in Ecuador, Banco de Alimentos Quito, has reported a 50 percent increase in demand for services, while another partner, India Food Banking Network, has warned the number of people requesting food has doubled recently.
Most of us don’t have a frame of reference for what is about to happen, because most of us have never been through anything like this before.
Right now, we are still in the very early stages of this crisis, and experts are telling us that it will be significantly worse by the end of the year.
Those on the lowest rungs of the economic food chain will be hit the
hardest, but things will soon get quite uncomfortable even in the
wealthiest of nations.
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