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https://www.oftwominds.com/blogfeb21/poisoned-America2-21.html

What Poisoned America?

The list of suspects is long: systemic bias, special interests dominating politics, political polarization, globalization and the offshoring of productive capacity, over-regulation, the rise of rapacious cartels and monopolies, Big Tech's gulag of the mind, the permanent adolescence of consumerism, permanent global war, to name a few.

The question boils down to this: what problems cannot be addressed by the status quo? Most of the ills listed above can be addressed with existing mechanisms of governance and adaptation. For example, consider systemic bias. The U.S. Armed Forces have demonstrably led the way in dramatically reducing systemic bias via performance-based advancement. The rest of America would do well to copy these organizational improvements.

Many of the other ills could be addressed within current systems of governance--antitrust, etc.

The two that appear impervious to reform are 1) soaring wealth-income-power inequality and 2) the dominance of special interests. In both cases, the corporate foxes are guarding the hen house, so any reforms with real teeth are watered down to PR by those reaping the vast majority of the financial gains. Corporate profits are in the billions while you can buy elected officials' cooperation for mere millions. There is no way to get around that asymmetry.

I would propose an even deeper systemic poison: zero-interest yield on capital. For a variety of reasons, the yield on capital is either zero or less than zero if we factor in inflation. We now earn (heh) 0.1% on our cash while inflation is somewhere between the "official" rate of 3% and more real-world measures between 5% and 10%.

This is a significant change from the days when savings (in savings and loans institutions) earned 5.25% by regulation.

While ordinary capital earns nothing (or less than zero), the capital and income of the top 0.01% has rocketed to unprecedented levels. This vast asymmetry is poisoning America, and the financial system, from the Federal Reserve on down, is incapable of addressing it other than making it even more distorted and destructive by doing more of what's failed spectacularly.

To understand why yields on capital have fallen to zero while wealth-income has flowed to the top elites, we need to look at wages share of the economy and capital's share of the economy. Wages share (i.e. labors' share) has been falling for the past 45 years, while corporate profits and the wealth of America's top tier has soared. (see chart below)

It is not coincidence that as interest rates fell to zero the wealth and income of the top 0.01% soared while ordinary wage income fell 10% when adjusted for the purchasing power of the earnings.

A recent report prepared by the RAND Corporation, Trends in Income From 1975 to 2018, documents that $50 trillion in earnings has been transferred to owners of capital from the bottom 90% of American households in the past 45 years.

What happens when the purchasing power of the earnings of the bottom 90% declines for decades? (Even high-earners such as doctors have experienced a decline in the purchasing power of their earnings since 1975.) Households cannot borrow as much money as they once could because their earnings simply don't go as far; there is less disposable income to support more debt service.

What happens when corporate profits skyrocket as jobs are offshored and corporations arbitrage all the goodies of globalization? The corporations don't need to borrow as much money as they have trillions in profits to work with.

In other words, demand for credit stagnates while at the same time, the Federal Reserve has flooded the economy with near-zero rate credit. Demand has stagnated along with wages while supply has rocketed into the trillions thanks to unprecedented central bank credit creation.

The reason why central banks have slashed rates to zero is obvious: if the bottom 90% can't borrow more money at 5% to consume more goods and services, they can certainly borrow more at 1.5% because the interest part of their monthly payment drops significantly.

And sure enough, crushing rates to near-zero has triggered refinancing/housing bubbles and generated high auto-truck sales based on a few dollars down and 1.9% auto financing.

In other words: as the purchasing power of wages has relentlessly declined, the "fix" is to substitute debt for earnings. The fact that eventually stagnating earnings cannot support more debt at any rate of interest is inconvenient, so it's been ignored.

Zero-interest rates has played out differently in Corporate America: since capital is so cheap to borrow, why not borrow a few billion dollars at 1.5% and use the money to buy back shares of the company's stock, which generates a hefty 10% annual increase in the share price? Indeed, why not?

And why not use that cheap capital to automate tasks to reduce costly American labor and move even more staff overseas to low-wage nations? Indeed, why not? Maximizing profits demands it, and the near-zero cost of capital incentivizes it.

The net result of near-zero yields on capital? The top 0.1% own more wealth than the bottom 80%. Roughly 75% of all income gains have gone to the top 0.01%.

This extreme asymmetry has poisoned American society and its economy. This immense distortion in the cost of capital can best be understood by asking: what happens when a resource is free?

The answer is that it's squandered. But the squandering is only part of the problem.

Consider what happened when air and water were "free". Both the air and water became toxic waste dumps, and American rivers infamously caught on fire. The same is true of "free" capital: America's financial system is nothing more than a toxic waste dump of extreme speculation, fraud, collusion, corruption and rampant profiteering.

The rivers are on fire but the Federal Reserve's plan remains the same: keep the cost of capital at "free" so the extremes of speculation can run to failure. The run to failure will be as extreme as the asymmetries that have poisoned America. 

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http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/56344.htm

Next Up: Global Depression

A few days after the Covid pandemic was officially announced last year on 1/23/20, I prepared a chart projecting the course of the pandemic. In my view it still stands, with two updates: "vaccines months away" has been updated to "mass vaccinations months away" and "Wave 2" has been updated to "Wave 4." (see chart below)

The end-point--global depression--is up next. Very few are prepared for this eventuality because they put their faith in 1) central banks pursuing an insane folly and 2) a fragile, brittle global economy that was already teetering on the edge of destabilization before the pandemic.

Here's the central banks' insane folly in a nutshell: to create new enterprises and jobs, we'll blow the world's greatest speculative bubble into an even greater speculative bubble. So in other words, we'll further enrich the top layer of the Financial Aristocracy who own the vast majority of the assets we're pushing to the moon, and by some inexplicable magic, adding trillions of dollars, yuan, yen and euros to the wealth of this elite will somehow launch a thousand new thriving enterprises which will magically hire 500,000 new workers every month.

Can we be honest for a split second and admit that the Tooth Fairy and Santa Claus look plausible compared to this insane proposition? Since there's a tiny window of honesty open, let's also admit that adding a booster rocket to the wealth-income inequality that is undermining democracy, society and the economy is exactly what we'd choose to do if our goal was destroying America. Yet this is precisely what the entire Federal Reserve policy sets out to do: boost wealth-income inequality to new extremes.

Meanwhile, global supply chains that were optimized for Globalization Heaven are incredibly brittle and fragile as a result of the optimization. Optimizing for maximizing profit means getting rid of redundancies, buffers, quality control and ramping dependence on offshore suppliers to 100%.

If you set out to design a global supply system that would fail catastrophically, creating self-reinforcing shortages of essentials and key components, you'd choose the system now teetering on the edge of implosion. Optimization is wonderful for boosting profits when everything is priced to perfection and functioning to perfection, but when reality intrudes, you find you've stripped out all those costly, unnecessary bits that enabled the supply chain to deal with a spot of bother.

Unfortunately for the central bankers, their policy of giving trillions in free money for financiers and speculators is suffering from diminishing returns: where $100 billion once had a significant effect on financial markets, now $1 trillion no longer has any effect at all, and so the only dose that causes the patient's eyelids to flicker briefly is $3 trillion--no wait a minute, make that $5 trillion, nope, not enough, make it $10 trillion, yikes, still not enough, pump in $20 trillion!

I prepared a chart (below) which depicts how diminishing returns on inflating speculative asset bubbles leads the global financial system to a cliff from which there is no return.

Though few seem to be aware of it, we're tottering on that cliff edge. The final manifestation of central bankers' insane folly is the promise that endless wealth can be yours if only you join the speculative extremes racing over the cliff. Maybe the immense herd of speculators will all magically grow wings once they're in free-fall; that's no more insane than counting on speculative asset bubbles to magically create real enterprises and jobs.

This madness is now global, so next up: global depression. The story of the past year hasn't changed: blowing an even bigger speculative asset bubble is the sure cure; the latest "fix" to the pandemic will make it go away forever and ever, and everything that was broken before the pandemic will magically be restored by the magic of ever larger and more precarious speculative asset bubbles.